1The odds converter
American, decimal, and the real chance behind the price, side by side.
| American | Decimal | Implied chance | Means |
|---|---|---|---|
| -300 | 1.33 | 75.0% | Big favorite |
| -200 | 1.50 | 66.7% | Favorite |
| -150 | 1.67 | 60.0% | Favorite |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.4% | Near coin-flip* |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.0% | Even money |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.0% | Underdog |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.3% | Underdog |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% | Big underdog |
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.7% | Long shot |
Do it yourself:
Favorite (minus):
Underdog (plus):
Favorite (minus):
chance = odds ÷ (odds + 100) → -150 = 150 ÷ 250 = 60%Underdog (plus):
chance = 100 ÷ (odds + 100) → +200 = 100 ÷ 300 = 33%
*-110 is the standard "juiced" price. It implies 52.4%, not 50%. That extra 2.4% is the bookmaker's cut. More on that below.
2The value check
The one habit that separates disciplined bettors from everyone else.
A bet is only worth making when your estimate of the real chance is higher than the chance the odds imply. That gap is your edge. Everything else is just gambling on a feeling.
Example. A team is priced at
If you honestly think they win closer to
If you think it's more like
+150 → the odds imply a 40% chance.If you honestly think they win closer to
50% of the time, the price is in your favor. That's value.If you think it's more like
30%, skip it, no matter how much you like the team.
- Estimate the chance first, then look at the price. Never the other way round.
- No gap in your favor = no bet. Passing is a position.
- Value shows up over hundreds of bets, not one. Judge the decision, not the result.
3Bankroll basics
The simple staking rules that keep you in the game.
- Set a bankroll you're fine losing. Money for entertainment, never rent or bills.
- 1 unit = 1 to 2% of that bankroll. On a $500 bankroll, that's $5 to $10 a bet.
- Bet in flat units. Same size whether you feel hot or cold. Feelings lie.
- Never chase. Betting bigger to "get even" turns one bad night into a bad month.
- Never top up mid-tilt. When it's gone for the day, it's gone for the day.
- Track every bet. You can't fix what you don't measure.
4Plain-English glossary
All the jargon, decoded.
Vig / juice:the bookmaker's built-in cut on every line (why -110 both sides isn't a fair coin flip).
Implied probability:the chance a price is really quoting, once you strip it back to a percentage.
Value:when your estimated chance beats the implied chance. The only reason to place a bet.
Unit:your standard bet size, 1 to 2% of bankroll. Talking in units keeps ego out of it.
Favorite (−) / Underdog (+):minus is expected to win (smaller payout); plus is the longer shot (bigger payout).
Closing line:the final price right before kickoff. Beating it regularly is the mark of a sharp bettor.
Parlay:several bets combined into one. Bigger payout, much lower chance. Fun, rarely +value.
Chasing:raising your stakes to recover losses. The fastest way to blow a bankroll.
Ready to go deeper?
This free sheet is just the start
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